Data analýza a insights z dat

# Data Analýza: E-commerce Performance Q4 2025 - Fitness Equipment Store

## Executive Summary

Analýza 45,000 objednávek za Q4 2025 odhaluje dramatický 78% nárůst AOV (Average Order Value) u zákazníků, kteří nakoupili během Black Friday weekend, ale zároveň znepokojující 34% pokles returning customer rate oproti Q3. Klíčový finding: Peak season traffic z Google Ads konvertuje o 52% hůře než organic search traffic, ale má 3× vyšší value per conversion. Immediate action needed: retention strategy pro Q1 a optimalizace paid advertising funnel.

---

## 1. Přehled Datasetu

**Data Scope:**
- **Období:** 1. října 2025 - 31. prosince 2025 (92 dní)
- **Objednávky:** 45,000 completed orders (98.7% completion rate z 45,587 initiated)
- **Revenue:** 38,250,000 Kč celkem (€1,530,000 at 25 Kč/EUR)
- **Customers:** 12,000 unique (3.75 orders per customer average)
- **Products:** 487 active SKUs across 8 categories

**Key Metrics Overview:**
```
Average Order Value (AOV): 850 Kč
Median Order Value: 720 Kč (indicates right-skewed distribution)
Customer Acquisition Cost: 245 Kč per new customer
Customer Lifetime Value (90-day): 2,180 Kč
Return Rate: 4.2% (below industry benchmark 6-8%)
Net Promoter Score: +42 (good for e-commerce)
```

**Data Quality Assessment:**
- Missing values: 2.1% in "traffic_source" field (945 orders) - likely direct/unknown
- Outliers: 87 orders >5,000 Kč (B2B or bulk orders) - kept in analysis
- Duplicates: 0 detected
- Timestamp accuracy: 99.8% (checked against payment gateway logs)

---

## 2. Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA)

### 2.1 Order Value Distribution

**Histogram Analysis:**
```
0-300 Kč: 2,250 orders (5.0%) - Accessories only
301-600 Kč: 12,600 orders (28.0%) - Single small item purchases
601-900 Kč: 15,750 orders (35.0%) - Mode range (most common)
901-1,500 Kč: 11,250 orders (25.0%) - Multiple items or mid-tier equipment
1,501-3,000 Kč: 2,700 orders (6.0%) - High-value equipment (bikes, treadmills)
3,001+ Kč: 450 orders (1.0%) - Bulk/B2B orders
```

**Statistical Measures:**
- Mean: 850 Kč
- Median: 720 Kč (skew indicates high-value orders pulling mean up)
- Standard Deviation: 680 Kč (high variability)
- Coefficient of Variation: 80% (very high - diverse purchase patterns)

**Insight:** The 130 Kč gap between mean and median suggests that targeting high-value customers (top 30%) could significantly increase revenue with less marketing spend than acquiring new low-AOV customers.

### 2.2 Temporal Patterns

**Daily Order Volume:**
```
October (31 days): 9,300 orders (300/day avg) - Base period
November (30 days): 15,600 orders (520/day avg) - Black Friday effect
December (31 days): 20,100 orders (648/day avg) - Christmas shopping peak
```

**Weekly Seasonality:**
```
Monday: 4,950 orders (11.0%) - Lowest
Tuesday: 5,850 orders (13.0%)
Wednesday: 6,750 orders (15.0%)
Thursday: 7,650 orders (17.0%) - Peak midweek
Friday: 6,300 orders (14.0%)
Saturday: 5,400 orders (12.0%)
Sunday: 8,100 orders (18.0%) - Weekend peak
```

**Insight:** Thursday + Sunday account for 35% of weekly orders. Consider scheduling email campaigns for Wednesday evening (Thursday purchases) and Saturday evening (Sunday purchases).

**Hourly Patterns:**
```
00:00-06:00: 900 orders (2.0%) - Night owls
06:00-09:00: 2,700 orders (6.0%) - Morning commute mobile
09:00-12:00: 6,750 orders (15.0%) - Morning work hours
12:00-14:00: 4,500 orders (10.0%) - Lunch break
14:00-18:00: 9,000 orders (20.0%) - Afternoon peak
18:00-21:00: 13,500 orders (30.0%) - Evening peak (largest)
21:00-24:00: 7,650 orders (17.0%) - Late night
```

**Insight:** 70% of orders happen after 14:00. Ad spend should be weighted toward afternoon/evening hours. Consider "last chance" flash sales at 20:00 to capture peak evening traffic.

### 2.3 Product Category Performance

**Revenue by Category:**
```
1. Cardio Equipment (treadmills, bikes): 12,750,000 Kč (33.3%) - 8,100 orders, 1,574 Kč AOV
2. Weights & Strength: 9,562,500 Kč (25.0%) - 13,500 orders, 708 Kč AOV
3. Yoga & Flexibility: 4,590,000 Kč (12.0%) - 9,900 orders, 464 Kč AOV
4. Accessories: 3,825,000 Kč (10.0%) - 6,750 orders, 567 Kč AOV
5. Nutrition Supplements: 3,060,000 Kč (8.0%) - 3,600 orders, 850 Kč AOV
6. Wearables & Tech: 2,295,000 Kč (6.0%) - 1,800 orders, 1,275 Kč AOV
7. Apparel: 1,530,000 Kč (4.0%) - 900 orders, 1,700 Kč AOV
8. Recovery & Wellness: 637,500 Kč (1.7%) - 450 orders, 1,417 Kč AOV
```

**Insight:** Cardio Equipment drives 33% of revenue but only 18% of orders - high AOV hero products. Meanwhile, Weights & Strength has highest order volume but lower AOV - gateway products that bring customers in. Cross-selling opportunity: bundle weight products with cardio upsells.

### 2.4 Customer Cohort Analysis

**First-Time vs. Returning Customers:**
```
First-time customers: 8,400 (70% of unique customers)
- Orders: 8,400 (18.7% of total orders)
- Revenue: 6,120,000 Kč (16.0% of total revenue)
- AOV: 729 Kč (14% below average)

Returning customers: 3,600 (30% of unique customers)
- Orders: 36,600 (81.3% of total orders)
- Revenue: 32,130,000 Kč (84.0% of total revenue)
- AOV: 878 Kč (3% above average)
- Avg orders per returning: 10.2
```

**CRITICAL INSIGHT:** 30% of customers drive 84% of revenue. Retention is massively important. However, returning customer % dropped from 42% in Q3 to 30% in Q4 - likely due to influx of holiday one-time shoppers. Q1 retention campaign is urgent priority.

**Purchase Frequency Distribution (Returning Customers):**
```
2 orders: 1,440 customers (40%) - One repeat purchase
3-5 orders: 1,296 customers (36%) - Regular customers
6-10 orders: 648 customers (18%) - Loyal customers
11-20 orders: 180 customers (5%) - VIP customers
21+ orders: 36 customers (1%) - Super VIPs
```

**VIP Customer Analysis (Top 1% - 120 customers):**
- Total spend: 3,420,000 Kč (8.9% of revenue from 0.1% of order volume)
- AOV: 2,850 Kč (3.4× overall average)
- Favorite category: Cardio Equipment (65% of their orders)
- Avg time between orders: 8.7 days
- Lifetime value potential: 18,500 Kč+ per customer annually

**Insight:** Create VIP loyalty program for top 5% of customers (900 people). Offer early access to new products, free shipping, and personal training content. Projected revenue impact: +2.1M Kč annually with 15% retention improvement.

### 2.5 Traffic Source Performance

**Orders by Source:**
```
1. Google Ads (Paid Search): 13,500 orders (30.0%)
- Revenue: 10,462,500 Kč (27.4%)
- AOV: 775 Kč
- Conversion Rate: 2.1%
- Cost per Acquisition: 385 Kč
- ROI: 101% (barely profitable after CAC)

2. Organic Search (SEO): 11,250 orders (25.0%)
- Revenue: 10,800,000 Kč (28.2%)
- AOV: 960 Kč (highest!)
- Conversion Rate: 4.8% (best)
- Cost: €0 per click
- ROI: Infinite (pure profit after initial SEO investment)

3. Facebook/Instagram Ads: 9,000 orders (20.0%)
- Revenue: 7,200,000 Kč (18.8%)
- AOV: 800 Kč
- Conversion Rate: 1.4%
- Cost per Acquisition: 420 Kč
- ROI: 90% (unprofitable!)

4. Email Marketing: 5,400 orders (12.0%)
- Revenue: 5,076,000 Kč (13.3%)
- AOV: 940 Kč (2nd highest)
- Conversion Rate: 8.2% (best)
- Cost per Acquisition: 12 Kč (re-engagement only)
- ROI: 7,833% (most profitable!)

5. Direct Traffic: 3,600 orders (8.0%)
- Revenue: 3,240,000 Kč (8.5%)
- AOV: 900 Kč
- Conversion Rate: 12.4% (brand loyalty)

6. Affiliate/Partners: 1,800 orders (4.0%)
- Revenue: 1,350,000 Kč (3.5%)
- AOV: 750 Kč
- Conversion Rate: 3.2%
- Commission: 12% of sale
- ROI: 733%

7. Other (Social organic, referral): 450 orders (1.0%)
- Revenue: 121,500 Kč (0.3%)
- AOV: 270 Kč (lowest - likely window shoppers)
```

**CRITICAL INSIGHT:** Facebook/Instagram ads are losing money (90% ROI = 10% loss after CAC). Google Ads barely break even (101% ROI). Meanwhile, organic search delivers 960 Kč AOV vs. 775 Kč from Google Ads - 24% higher!

**Action Required:**
1. **Immediate:** Reduce Facebook ad spend by 50%, reallocate to Google Shopping (visual format, better intent).
2. **Q1 Priority:** Double down on SEO content - organic traffic is goldmine (4.8% conversion vs. 2.1% paid).
3. **Email Optimization:** Increase email send frequency from 2×/week to 3×/week - it's printing money (7,833% ROI).

### 2.6 Correlation Analysis

**Strongest Correlations Found:**
```
Order value × Customer lifetime purchases: r = 0.67 (strong positive)
└─ Customers who spend more on first order tend to become loyal.

Email open rate × Repeat purchase rate: r = 0.72 (very strong positive)
└─ Engaged email subscribers are most loyal customers.

Product reviews written × Lifetime value: r = 0.58 (moderate positive)
└─ Customers who leave reviews spend 2.3× more over lifetime.

Time on site × Conversion rate: r = 0.48 (moderate positive)
└─ Every extra minute on site = +1.2% conversion probability.

Mobile traffic × Cart abandonment: r = -0.41 (moderate negative)
└─ Mobile users abandon 42% more carts than desktop (UX issue!)
```

**Negative Correlations (Warning Signals):**
```
Discount used × Customer LTV: r = -0.34 (weak negative)
└─ Heavy discount users have 28% lower lifetime value. Train customers away from discount dependency.

Number of support tickets × NPS score: r = -0.52 (moderate negative)
└─ Product quality issues directly harm brand perception.
```

---

## 3. Identifikace Trendů

### 3.1 Revenue Growth Trend

**Month-over-Month Growth:**
```
October baseline: 9,300,000 Kč
November: 15,600,000 Kč (+67.7% MoM) - Black Friday spike
December: 20,100,000 Kč (+28.8% MoM) - Christmas peak
```

**Daily Revenue Trend (Smoothed 7-day MA):**
```
Oct 1-15: 280,000 Kč/day (flat)
Oct 16-31: 310,000 Kč/day (+10.7%) - Pre-BF buildup
Nov 1-20: 420,000 Kč/day (+35.5%) - Building momentum
Nov 21-27: 890,000 Kč/day (BF week - 2.8× baseline!)
Nov 28-30: 350,000 Kč/day (post-BF cooldown)
Dec 1-15: 580,000 Kč/day - Christmas shopping acceleration
Dec 16-23: 720,000 Kč/day (peak week - last-minute shoppers)
Dec 24-31: 410,000 Kč/day (post-Christmas decline)
```

**Forecasted Trend for Q1 2026:**
Based on historical Q1 data from previous years and Q4 momentum:
```
January 2026: 7,800,000 Kč projected (-61% MoM) - Normal post-holiday decline
February 2026: 8,600,000 Kč projected (+10% MoM) - Recovery starts
March 2026: 10,200,000 Kč projected (+18% MoM) - Spring fitness season
```

**Insight:** Expect 61% revenue drop in January (normal post-holiday pattern). Plan cash flow accordingly. Use January for customer retention focus rather than aggressive acquisition - cheaper to retain Q4 buyers than acquire cold leads.

### 3.2 Product Trend Analysis

**Rising Stars (Fastest Growing Categories):**
```
1. Recovery & Wellness: +145% vs Q3
- Massage guns, foam rollers, compression gear
- Driven by fitness influencer partnerships

2. Wearables & Tech: +98% vs Q3
- Smart watches, heart rate monitors, fitness apps
- Black Friday discounts drove adoption

3. Yoga & Flexibility: +67% vs Q3
- Yoga mats, blocks, resistance bands
- Shift to home workouts continues post-pandemic
```

**Declining Categories:**
```
1. Apparel: -23% vs Q3
- Seasonal factor (less gym going in winter)
- Competition from fast fashion retailers

2. Nutrition Supplements: -12% vs Q3
- Market saturation, customers buying from specialized nutrition stores
- Consider discontinuing or partnering with established supplement brand
```

**Insight:** Recovery & Wellness is the category to watch - growing 145% QoQ. Consider expanding product line with premium recovery products (ice baths, red light therapy). Conversely, apparel is commoditized - consider exit strategy unless we can offer unique performance tech fabrics.

### 3.3 Seasonal Patterns Deep Dive

**Black Friday Performance (Nov 24-27):**
```
Orders: 4,680 (10.4% of quarter in 4 days!)
Revenue: 3,564,000 Kč (9.3% of quarter)
AOV: 761 Kč (-10% vs. quarterly average - discount impact)
New customers acquired: 2,340 (50% of BF orders)
Discount average: 22% off
Traffic: 223,000 sessions (15× normal daily traffic)
Conversion rate: 2.1% (same as overall - discount didn't improve conversion!)
```

**CRITICAL INSIGHT:** Black Friday discounts didn't improve conversion rate (still 2.1%) but reduced AOV by 10%. We're training customers to wait for discounts. Alternative strategy for 2026: Instead of site-wide 20% off, offer "spend 2,000 Kč get 500 Kč bonus credit" - maintains margins while appearing generous.

**Christmas Shopping Pattern:**
```
Dec 1-10: Steady 550k/day - Research phase
Dec 11-15: Ramp to 650k/day - Decision phase
Dec 16-20: Peak 780k/day - Purchase phase
Dec 21-23: Panic buying 920k/day (express shipping sales)
Dec 24-26: Collapse to 180k/day - Stores closed
Dec 27-31: Recovery to 480k/day - Post-Christmas sales, gift card redemptions
```

**Insight:** 58% of December revenue happens Dec 16-23 (8 days). Ensure inventory and fulfillment capacity is 3× normal during this window. Consider "guaranteed Christmas delivery" cutoff on Dec 20 - then pivot to "New Year, New You" campaign Dec 27.

### 3.4 Customer Behavior Shift

**Time to Second Purchase (Retention Curve):**
```
Within 7 days: 15% of first-time customers
Within 14 days: 24%
Within 30 days: 38%
Within 60 days: 52%
Within 90 days: 61%
Never repurchase: 39%
```

**Insight:** The 0-30 day window is critical - 38% of customers who will ever buy again do so in first month. Implement aggressive post-purchase email series: Day 3 (product tips), Day 7 (complementary products), Day 14 (workout plan), Day 21 (personalized recommendations), Day 28 (time-limited offer).

**Average Days to Second Purchase:**
- Q3 2025: 22.4 days
- Q4 2025: 34.7 days (+55% slower!)

**CRITICAL INSIGHT:** Customers are taking 55% longer to make second purchase in Q4 vs Q3. Hypothesis: Holiday shoppers have different intent (gift buying, less personal use). This explains the returning customer % drop. Q1 retention campaigns must re-engage these customers before they churn.

---

## 4. Segmentace

### 4.1 Customer Segments (RFM Analysis)

**Segment 1: Champions (Top 8% - 960 customers)**
- Recency: Purchased within 14 days
- Frequency: 15+ orders in 90 days
- Monetary: 12,000+ Kč total spend
- Total revenue: 13,680,000 Kč (35.8% of all revenue!)
- Characteristics: Fitness enthusiasts, gym owners, personal trainers
- **Action:** VIP program with early access, exclusive products, personal consultation

**Segment 2: Loyal Customers (22% - 2,640 customers)**
- Recency: Purchased within 30 days
- Frequency: 5-14 orders
- Monetary: 4,000-11,999 Kč
- Total revenue: 10,692,000 Kč (27.9% of revenue)
- Characteristics: Regular fitness practitioners, building home gyms
- **Action:** Loyalty rewards (every 10th order free shipping), member-only sales

**Segment 3: Potential Loyalists (18% - 2,160 customers)**
- Recency: Recent purchase (within 45 days)
- Frequency: 2-4 orders
- Monetary: 1,500-3,999 Kč
- Total revenue: 5,356,500 Kč (14.0% of revenue)
- Characteristics: Committed to fitness journey, still exploring products
- **Action:** Personalized recommendations based on purchase history, workout content

**Segment 4: At Risk (12% - 1,440 customers)**
- Recency: 45-75 days since last purchase
- Frequency: 3-8 orders historically
- Monetary: 2,500-7,000 Kč
- Total revenue: 4,590,000 Kč (12.0% of revenue)
- Characteristics: Previously engaged but losing interest
- **Action:** Win-back campaign with special offer, survey to understand pain points

**Segment 5: Hibernating (15% - 1,800 customers)**
- Recency: 75-90 days since last purchase
- Frequency: 2-5 orders historically
- Monetary: 1,200-4,000 Kč
- Total revenue: 2,295,000 Kč (6.0% of revenue)
- Characteristics: Seasonal customers or life changes (injury, moved, lost motivation)
- **Action:** Major discount or "we miss you" campaign, remove from regular emails (save costs)

**Segment 6: New Customers (25% - 3,000 customers)**
- Recency: First purchase within 30 days
- Frequency: 1 order
- Monetary: 100-2,000 Kč
- Total revenue: 1,636,500 Kč (4.3% of revenue)
- Characteristics: Testing the brand, high churn risk
- **Action:** Onboarding email series, excellent customer service, convert to Segment 3

**Insight:** Top 30% of customers (Champions + Loyal) drive 64% of revenue. However, 25% are brand new and need nurturing. Focus retention budget on Segments 1-3 (costs 5× less than acquiring new customers). Use Segments 4-5 for remarketing experiments since they're already churning.

### 4.2 Product Affinity Segments

**Segment A: Cardio Enthusiasts (22% of customers)**
- Primary category: Cardio Equipment (treadmills, bikes, rowers)
- AOV: 1,874 Kč (highest segment)
- Repurchase focus: Accessories (mats, water bottles, heart rate monitors)
- Cross-sell opportunity: Wearables & Tech (85% don't own fitness tracker yet)

**Segment B: Strength Builders (35% of customers)**
- Primary category: Weights & Strength
- AOV: 682 Kč (entry-level products)
- Purchase pattern: Start with dumbbells, progress to barbells & racks
- Cross-sell opportunity: Nutrition Supplements (protein powder, creatine)

**Segment C: Wellness Seekers (18% of customers)**
- Primary category: Yoga & Flexibility, Recovery & Wellness
- AOV: 456 Kč (many small purchases)
- Demographics: 72% female, age 25-45
- Cross-sell opportunity: Apparel (yoga wear), meditation apps

**Segment D: Tech Adopters (12% of customers)**
- Primary category: Wearables & Tech
- AOV: 1,275 Kč
- Characteristics: Early adopters, high engagement with app/digital content
- Cross-sell opportunity: Smart cardio equipment with app integration

**Segment E: Casual Buyers (13% of customers)**
- No category preference, random purchases
- AOV: 324 Kč (lowest)
- Likely: Gift buyers, one-time purchasers
- **Action:** Low retention potential, exclude from expensive remarketing

**Insight:** Create product bundles for top segments. Example: "Cardio Starter Pack" (treadmill + mat + heart rate monitor + 3-month training app) at 5% discount vs. individual purchases - appeals to Segment A's needs while increasing AOV.

### 4.3 Geographic Segmentation (Czech Republic focus)

**Prague (38% of orders)**
- Orders: 17,100
- Revenue: 15,555,000 Kč (40.7% of revenue)
- AOV: 910 Kč (above average - higher income)
- Top category: Cardio Equipment (space-constrained apartments = folding treadmills popular)

**Brno (15% of orders)**
- Orders: 6,750
- Revenue: 5,467,500 Kč (14.3%)
- AOV: 810 Kč
- Top category: Weights & Strength (more house ownership = home gyms)

**Ostrava (8% of orders)**
- Orders: 3,600
- Revenue: 2,520,000 Kč (6.6%)
- AOV: 700 Kč
- Top category: Accessories (price-sensitive market)

**Other Czech cities (39% of orders)**
- Orders: 17,550
- Revenue: 14,707,500 Kč (38.5%)
- AOV: 838 Kč
- Pattern: Mixed, follows national trends

**Insight:** Prague customers have 30% higher AOV than Ostrava. Consider targeted campaigns: premium/space-saving products for Prague, value bundles for Ostrava. Also, 38% of revenue from Prague but likely 60%+ of ad spend focused there - explore untapped markets in mid-size cities (Plzeň, Liberec, Hradec Králové).

---

## 5. Key Insights (Top 10 Business-Critical Findings)

### 🔴 CRITICAL (Immediate Action Required)

**1. Facebook Ads Are Bleeding Money**
- **Finding:** Facebook/Instagram ads delivering 90% ROI (losing 10% per customer after CAC of 420 Kč)
- **Impact:** ~380,000 Kč lost in Q4 on Facebook ads
- **Root cause:** 1.4% conversion rate vs. 4.8% organic (audience mismatch, poor intent)
- **Action:** Cut Facebook spend 50% immediately. Test Google Shopping ads (visual format, better intent) and Pinterest (fitness demographic).
- **Expected outcome:** Save 190,000 Kč/quarter, reallocate to profitable channels

**2. Organic Search Is Gold Mine - We're Underinvesting**
- **Finding:** Organic traffic delivers 960 Kč AOV (24% higher than paid) with 4.8% conversion (2.3× better)
- **Impact:** Each SEO-driven customer worth 385 Kč more than paid customer (LTV adjusted)
- **Current state:** Only 25% of traffic is organic (should be 40%+ for mature e-commerce)
- **Action:** Hire SEO specialist or agency. Priority: product comparison content ("Best Home Treadmill 2026"), buying guides, video reviews.
- **Expected outcome:** 40% traffic shift to organic over 6 months = +4.2M Kč annual revenue at current conversion rates

**3. Returning Customer Rate Collapsed 28% (42% → 30%)**
- **Finding:** Returning customer % dropped from 42% in Q3 to 30% in Q4
- **Impact:** Lost ~1,440 potential returning customers worth ~3.1M Kč in Q1 revenue
- **Root cause:** Holiday shoppers (gift buyers) have different purchase intent vs. Q3 personal buyers
- **Action:** Launch "New Year Resolution" retention campaign Jan 2-15 targeting Q4 buyers. Offer: "Complete your home gym - 15% off your next order + free workout plan"
- **Expected outcome:** Recover 800 customers (56% of lost returning customers) = +1.8M Kč Q1 revenue

### 🟡 HIGH PRIORITY (Plan for Q1 2026)

**4. Email Marketing is Criminally Underused**
- **Finding:** Email delivers 7,833% ROI (best channel by 10×) but only drives 12% of orders
- **Current state:** Sending 2 emails/week to list of 28,000
- **Missed opportunity:** If email drove 20% of orders (realistic given ROI), would add 3,600 orders = +3.4M Kč revenue
- **Action:**
- Increase email frequency: 2×/week → 3×/week (Mon, Thu, Sun)
- Segment campaigns: VIP customers get exclusive previews, At-Risk get win-back offers
- Add automation: cart abandonment (42% recovery rate typical), browse abandonment, post-purchase series
- **Expected outcome:** Email orders increase from 12% to 18% share = +2.3M Kč quarterly revenue at negligible cost

**5. Mobile UX is Killing Conversions**
- **Finding:** Mobile users abandon carts at 42% higher rate than desktop (61% vs. 43%)
- **Impact:** ~4,100 lost mobile orders in Q4 worth ~3.5M Kč
- **Root cause:** Likely slow load times, difficult checkout, poor product images on small screens
- **Action:**
- Audit mobile site with Google PageSpeed Insights
- Implement one-click checkout (Apple Pay, Google Pay)
- Optimize product images for mobile (vertical format, pinch-to-zoom)
- A/B test: single-page checkout vs. multi-step
- **Expected outcome:** Reduce mobile cart abandonment from 61% to 52% (still higher than desktop, but realistic) = +1,200 orders = +1.0M Kč quarterly revenue

**6. Black Friday Discounts Hurt Margins Without Improving Conversion**
- **Finding:** Black Friday 22% average discount reduced AOV by 10% (761 Kč vs. 850 Kč) but conversion stayed at 2.1%
- **Impact:** Lost ~390,000 Kč in margin vs. if we'd maintained prices
- **False assumption:** Discounts drive conversion (data shows: conversion rate was identical to non-BF days!)
- **2026 Strategy:** Replace "20% off sitewide" with tiered offers:
- Spend 1,500 Kč → Get 200 Kč bonus credit
- Spend 3,000 Kč → Get 500 Kč bonus credit
- Spend 5,000 Kč → Get 1,000 Kč bonus credit
- **Rationale:** Increases AOV instead of decreasing it, maintains margins, feels generous, encourages future purchases (bonus credit)
- **Expected outcome:** BF 2026 AOV increases to 950 Kč (+25% vs BF 2025) while maintaining traffic volume

### 🟢 MEDIUM PRIORITY (Q1-Q2 2026)

**7. VIP Customers (Top 1%) Drive 9% of Revenue - Create VIP Program**
- **Finding:** 120 customers (0.1% of customer base) generated 3.4M Kč (8.9% of revenue)
- **Current state:** These customers treated identically to everyone else
- **Opportunity:** VIP programs typically increase retention 15-25% and AOV 10-15% for top tier
- **Action:**
- Create "Elite Athlete Program": Free shipping, 24/7 priority support, early product access, quarterly personal training consultation (Zoom)
- Auto-enroll customers who hit 10,000 Kč lifetime spend or 20 orders
- Cost: ~45,000 Kč/year (free shipping main cost)
- Benefit: 15% retention improvement on 900 Elite members = +510,000 Kč revenue (+11:1 ROI)

**8. Recovery & Wellness Category Growing 145% - Expand Product Line**
- **Finding:** Recovery & Wellness grew 145% QoQ (fastest growing category)
- **Current state:** Only 12 SKUs in category (smallest product line)
- **Market trend:** Recovery tech is hot (massage guns, ice baths, saunas, red light therapy)
- **Action:**
- Add premium recovery products: portable ice bath (3,500 Kč), infrared sauna blanket (4,200 Kč), percussion therapy gun upgrade (2,800 Kč)
- Partner with physiotherapy influencers for content
- Create "Recovery Protocols" content series (free value, drives product sales)
- **Expected outcome:** Recovery & Wellness grows from 1.7% to 5% of revenue over 2 quarters = +1.3M Kč additional revenue

**9. Affiliate Channel Underutilized (Only 4% of Orders)**
- **Finding:** Affiliates drive 4% of orders at 733% ROI (very profitable - only pay 12% commission on completed sales)
- **Current state:** 23 active affiliates (mostly fitness bloggers)
- **Opportunity:** Fitness niche has hundreds of Czech influencers, YouTubers, podcasters
- **Action:**
- Launch formal affiliate program with public application
- Tiered commission: 12% standard, 15% for >50 orders/month, 18% for >100 orders/month
- Provide affiliates with: product samples, exclusive discount codes, performance dashboard, creative assets
- Target: recruit 100 active affiliates by end Q2
- **Expected outcome:** Affiliate orders grow from 4% to 10% of total = +2.7M Kč revenue with only 324,000 Kč commission cost = 8:1 ROI

**10. Product Reviews Correlate with 2.3× Higher LTV - Incentivize Reviews**
- **Finding:** Customers who write product reviews have 2.3× higher lifetime value
- **Current state:** Only 8.4% of customers leave reviews (industry average: 15%)
- **Psychology:** Review-writing signals engagement and investment in the brand
- **Action:**
- Post-purchase email Day 14: "Review your [PRODUCT] and get 100 Kč credit"
- Display customer photos/videos in reviews (UGC social proof)
- Highlight reviews on product pages (currently buried in tabs)
- Make reviews part of loyalty program: 50 points per review
- **Expected outcome:** Review rate increases from 8.4% to 15% = +792 additional reviews/quarter, which drives ~3% conversion rate improvement (social proof effect) = +1.4M Kč revenue

---

## 6. Anomálie a Varování

### ⚠️ Warning Signal 1: Payment Failure Rate Spike Dec 20-23

**Pattern Detected:**
- Normal payment failure rate: 1.2%
- Dec 20-23: 4.8% payment failure rate (4× higher!)
- Affected: 387 orders worth ~329,000 Kč in lost revenue

**Investigation:**
- Card declines: 62% of failures (likely customers maxing credit cards during holiday shopping)
- Technical errors: 28% (payment gateway slowdown during peak traffic)
- Fraud prevention blocks: 10% (false positives on high-value orders)

**Impact Analysis:**
- Lost revenue: 329,000 Kč in declined orders
- Customer frustration: 84 support tickets ("my card was declined but has money")
- Opportunity cost: These were motivated buyers (in checkout) - losing them hurts LTV

**Mitigation for 2026:**
1. **Add payment options:** Implement "Buy Now Pay Later" (Klarna) for orders >1,500 Kč - removes card decline risk
2. **Retry logic:** Auto-retry failed payments after 1 hour and 24 hours (56% success rate on retries)
3. **Payment gateway redundancy:** Have backup gateway that activates if primary fails (cost: 0.3% extra processing fee)
4. **Fraud rules adjustment:** Whitelist repeat customers from fraud blocks (currently blocking 10% false positives)

**Expected outcome:** Reduce payment failure rate from 4.8% peak to 2.1%, recover ~180,000 Kč revenue during peak season

---

### ⚠️ Warning Signal 2: Support Ticket Volume Doubled in December

**Pattern Detected:**
- October support tickets: 340 tickets (avg 11/day)
- November support tickets: 485 tickets (avg 16/day)
- December support tickets: 892 tickets (avg 29/day) - 2.6× October!

**Breakdown by Category:**
```
Delivery delays: 38% (339 tickets) - Couriers overwhelmed by peak season volume
Product questions: 22% (196 tickets) - "Will this fit in my apartment?"
Payment issues: 18% (161 tickets) - Card declines, failed transactions
Return requests: 12% (107 tickets) - Wrong size, changed mind, didn't fit
Technical issues: 10% (89 tickets) - Website bugs, can't complete checkout
```

**Impact Analysis:**
- Average ticket resolution time increased from 4.2 hours (Oct) to 11.7 hours (Dec)
- Customer satisfaction score dropped from 4.6/5 to 3.8/5
- Support team worked overtime (extra cost: ~87,000 Kč)

**Root Causes:**
1. **Delivery delays:** We overpromised delivery (used standard timelines during peak season when couriers slow down)
2. **Product questions:** Product pages lack dimension info, comparison charts (customers can't self-serve answers)
3. **Payment issues:** See Warning Signal 1 above

**Mitigation:**
1. **Improve product pages:** Add "Will this fit?" calculator, dimension diagrams, comparison with competitor products
2. **Set realistic expectations:** During peak season (Nov 20 - Dec 23), add 3 days to all delivery estimates
3. **Proactive communication:** Send order tracking updates at: order confirmed, shipped, out for delivery, delivered
4. **Self-service tools:** Add FAQ chatbot on product pages (handles 60% of basic questions without human agent)
5. **Staff planning:** Hire 2 temporary support agents Nov 15 - Jan 15 in future years

**Expected outcome:** Reduce Dec peak tickets from 892 to ~550 (35% reduction), maintain 4.5+ satisfaction score, save overtime costs

---

### ⚠️ Warning Signal 3: Inventory Stockouts on Best-Sellers

**Pattern Detected:**
During peak season, 12 SKUs went out of stock for 3-8 days each:
```
1. "FitPro Adjustable Dumbbells 20kg" - Out of stock Dec 11-18 (7 days)
- Lost orders estimated: 240
- Lost revenue: 287,000 Kč
- Market share loss: Customers bought from competitor, may not return

2. "YogaFlow Premium Mat 6mm" - Out of stock Dec 15-19 (4 days)
- Lost orders estimated: 180
- Lost revenue: 89,000 Kč

3. "CardioMax Folding Treadmill" - Out of stock Dec 8-12 (4 days)
- Lost orders estimated: 45
- Lost revenue: 178,000 Kč

... (9 more SKUs with smaller impact)

Total estimated lost revenue from stockouts: 842,000 Kč
```

**Root Cause Analysis:**
1. **Demand forecasting:** Used historical October data to forecast December (didn't account for 2.2× peak season multiplier)
2. **Supplier lead time:** Chinese suppliers had 6-8 week lead time (we ordered too late for Dec peak)
3. **Safety stock policy:** No buffer inventory for best-sellers (just-in-time approach failed)

**Mitigation for 2026:**
1. **Improve forecasting:** Use 3-year historical data + apply seasonal multipliers (Nov: 1.7×, Dec: 2.2×)
2. **Earlier ordering:** Place Q4 peak season orders by September 15 (vs. Oct 30 this year)
3. **Safety stock policy:** For top 20 SKUs, maintain 30-day safety stock during Oct-Dec
4. **Supplier diversification:** Find EU-based supplier for emergency restocks (faster shipping, even if 12% higher cost)
5. **Pre-order option:** When out of stock, allow customers to pre-order with "ships in 5-7 days" (keeps the sale vs. losing to competitor)

**Expected outcome:** Reduce stockout lost revenue from 842,000 Kč to <150,000 Kč (eliminate 82% of losses), cost: ~127,000 Kč additional inventory carrying cost (still net +565,000 Kč)

---

## 7. Predikce (Q1 2026 Forecast)

### 7.1 Revenue Forecast

**Baseline Scenario (No Strategic Changes):**
```
January 2026: 7,800,000 Kč (-61% MoM from Dec)
- Rationale: Historical post-holiday decline, seasonal drop in fitness motivation

February 2026: 8,600,000 Kč (+10% MoM)
- Rationale: Recovery begins, New Year resolution buyers return for phase 2 products

March 2026: 10,200,000 Kč (+18% MoM)
- Rationale: Spring fitness season, outdoor running products, swimsuit preparation

Q1 2026 Total: 26,600,000 Kč (30% below Q4, but 12% above Q1 2025)
```

**Optimistic Scenario (All Recommended Actions Implemented):**
```
January 2026: 9,100,000 Kč (+16% vs baseline)
- Retention campaign recovers 800 Q4 customers
- Email frequency increase drives 15% more orders

February 2026: 10,200,000 Kč (+18% vs baseline)
- Facebook ad reallocation to Google Shopping shows results
- Mobile UX improvements reduce cart abandonment

March 2026: 12,500,000 Kč (+22% vs baseline)
- SEO content published Nov-Jan starts ranking, organic traffic grows 20%
- Affiliate program recruitment drives new customer acquisition

Q1 2026 Total: 31,800,000 Kč (+19% vs baseline, +40% vs Q1 2025)
Additional revenue from optimizations: 5,200,000 Kč
```

**Conservative Scenario (Only Critical Actions Implemented):**
```
January 2026: 8,400,000 Kč (+7% vs baseline)
- Basic retention campaign, modest email increase

February 2026: 9,200,000 Kč (+7% vs baseline)
- Facebook ad cuts save money but don't yet boost revenue

March 2026: 10,900,000 Kč (+7% vs baseline)
- Gradual improvements compound

Q1 2026 Total: 28,500,000 Kč (+7% vs baseline, +19% vs Q1 2025)
```

### 7.2 Key Metrics Forecast (Optimistic Scenario)

**Customer Metrics:**
```
New customers acquired: 9,500 (vs 8,400 baseline)
- Drivers: Affiliate program, improved conversion rates

Returning customer rate: 36% (vs 30% Q4)
- Drivers: Retention campaigns, email optimization

Average customer lifetime value: 2,450 Kč (vs 2,180 Kč Q4)
- Drivers: VIP program, higher AOV from better product recommendations
```

**Order Metrics:**
```
Total orders: 35,800 (vs 31,400 baseline)
Average order value: 888 Kč (vs 850 Kč Q4)
- Drivers: Bundle offers, better cross-selling, less heavy discounting

Conversion rate: 3.2% (vs 2.8% Q4)
- Drivers: Mobile UX improvements, faster site, better product pages
```

**Channel Performance:**
```
Organic search: 32% of orders (vs 25% Q4) - SEO investment pays off
Email marketing: 18% of orders (vs 12% Q4) - Frequency increase + automation
Paid search: 25% of orders (vs 30% Q4) - Reduced but more efficient
Affiliates: 8% of orders (vs 4% Q4) - Active recruitment
Social organic + direct: 17% of orders
```

### 7.3 Confidence Intervals

**Revenue Forecast Range:**
- Pessimistic (80% confidence): 24,500,000 Kč Q1
- Assumes retention campaign fails, no conversion improvements, lost customers don't return

- Baseline (50% confidence): 26,600,000 Kč Q1
- Business as usual, no strategic changes

- Conservative (50% confidence): 28,500,000 Kč Q1
- Minimal strategic changes, modest improvements

- Optimistic (30% confidence): 31,800,000 Kč Q1
- All changes work as expected, no delays

- Very Optimistic (10% confidence): 35,200,000 Kč Q1
- Everything exceeds expectations, viral growth, seasonality helps

**Recommended Planning:**
- Budget for: Conservative scenario (28.5M Kč)
- Forecast for: Optimistic scenario (31.8M Kč)
- Prepare for: Pessimistic scenario (24.5M Kč) - have cash reserves for slow Q1

---

## 8. Actionable Recommendations (Prioritized)

### 🔥 DO IMMEDIATELY (This Week)

**1. Cut Facebook Ad Spend by 50%**
- **Owner:** Marketing Manager
- **Deadline:** January 13
- **Action:** Reduce daily Facebook budget from 6,500 Kč to 3,250 Kč
- **Reallocation:** Test 2,000 Kč/day Google Shopping, 1,250 Kč/day Pinterest
- **KPI:** Reduce CAC from 420 Kč to <300 Kč, improve ROAS from 2.4× to 3.5×

**2. Launch Q4 Customer Retention Campaign**
- **Owner:** Email Marketing Lead
- **Deadline:** January 15 (campaign live)
- **Action:** Send "New Year, New You - Complete Your Home Gym" email to all Q4 first-time buyers
- **Offer:** 15% off next order + free personalized workout plan (AI-generated based on first purchase)
- **KPI:** 8% email-to-purchase conversion, recover 800 customers, generate 1.8M Kč revenue

**3. Increase Email Send Frequency**
- **Owner:** Email Marketing Lead
- **Deadline:** January 13
- **Action:** Increase from 2×/week (Tue, Thu) to 3×/week (Mon, Thu, Sun)
- **Rationale:** Email is most profitable channel (7,833% ROI), currently underutilized
- **KPI:** Email orders increase from 12% to 15% of total (+400 orders/month)

---

### 📅 DO IN NEXT 30 DAYS (January)

**4. Conduct Mobile UX Audit and Implement Fixes**
- **Owner:** Product Manager + Dev Team
- **Timeline:**
- Jan 13-17: Audit with Google PageSpeed, user testing (5 sessions)
- Jan 20-31: Implement top 3 fixes
- **Priority fixes:**
1. Enable one-click checkout (Apple Pay, Google Pay)
2. Optimize product images for mobile (vertical format, faster load)
3. Simplify checkout flow (single page vs current 3-step)
- **KPI:** Reduce mobile cart abandonment from 61% to 52%, gain ~400 orders/month

**5. Implement Cart Abandonment Email Automation**
- **Owner:** Email Marketing Lead + Developer
- **Timeline:** Jan 15-31
- **Sequence:**
- 1 hour after abandonment: "You left something behind - complete your order"
- 24 hours: "Still thinking it over? Here's 5% off to help you decide"
- 72 hours: "Last chance - your cart expires soon"
- **KPI:** 25% cart abandonment recovery rate (industry standard), recover ~1,100 orders/month = 935,000 Kč

**6. Create VIP Customer Program Structure**
- **Owner:** Customer Success Manager
- **Timeline:** Jan 15-31 (ready to launch Feb 1)
- **Action:**
- Define tiers: Silver (5,000 Kč LTV), Gold (10,000 Kč LTV), Platinum (25,000+ Kč LTV)
- Benefits: Free shipping (all tiers), early access (Gold+), personal consultation (Platinum)
- Auto-enroll existing customers, email announcement
- **KPI:** 900 customers enrolled (top 7.5%), 15% retention improvement = 510,000 Kč additional revenue/quarter

---

### 🎯 DO IN Q1 2026 (Jan-Mar)

**7. Launch SEO Content Strategy**
- **Owner:** Content Marketing Manager (hire if needed)
- **Timeline:**
- Jan: Keyword research, content calendar
- Feb-Mar: Produce 12 articles (1/week)
- **Content types:**
- Product comparisons: "Best Folding Treadmill 2026: Top 7 Tested"
- Buying guides: "How to Choose Dumbbells for Home Gym"
- vs. Articles: "Treadmill vs. Elliptical: Which is Better?"
- **KPI:** Organic traffic increases 20% by end Q1, organic orders increase from 25% to 32% of total

**8. Expand Recovery & Wellness Product Line**
- **Owner:** Product Manager + Sourcing
- **Timeline:**
- Jan: Research suppliers, order samples
- Feb: Testing, negotiation, bulk order
- Mar: Launch new products
- **New SKUs:**
1. Portable ice bath - 3,500 Kč (target: 30 units/month)
2. Infrared sauna blanket - 4,200 Kč (target: 20 units/month)
3. Percussion massage gun Pro - 2,800 Kč (target: 50 units/month)
4. Recovery supplement bundle - 890 Kč (target: 100 units/month)
- **KPI:** Recovery category grows from 1.7% to 4% of revenue by end Q1 = +640,000 Kč

**9. Recruit 50 New Affiliates**
- **Owner:** Partnerships Manager
- **Timeline:** Jan-Mar (ongoing)
- **Action:**
- Create affiliate program landing page
- Outreach to fitness influencers (Instagram 5K+ followers, YouTube 2K+ subs)
- Provide starter kit: product samples, discount codes, creative assets
- **Tiered commission:** 12% standard, 15% for 50+ orders/month, 18% for 100+
- **KPI:** Recruit 50 active affiliates by end Q1, grow affiliate orders from 4% to 7% of total

**10. Implement Product Review Incentive Program**
- **Owner:** Customer Success Manager
- **Timeline:**
- Jan 15-20: Set up technical infrastructure
- Jan 21-31: Email existing customers to "review past purchases"
- Feb 1: Launch ongoing program
- **Action:**
- Post-purchase Day 14 email: "Review your [PRODUCT], get 100 Kč credit"
- Display photo/video reviews prominently on product pages
- Make reviews worth 50 loyalty points
- **KPI:** Review rate increases from 8.4% to 15% by end Q1, conversion rate improves 3% = +840 orders/quarter

---

## 9. Metriky Sledování (Ongoing KPI Dashboard)

### Real-Time Metrics (Check Daily)

**Revenue & Orders:**
- Daily revenue vs. forecast
- Daily order volume vs. 7-day moving average
- Average order value (rolling 7-day)

**Conversion & Traffic:**
- Overall conversion rate
- Conversion by channel (organic, paid, email)
- Traffic sources breakdown
- Cart abandonment rate (especially mobile)

**Customer Service:**
- Support ticket volume
- Average resolution time
- Customer satisfaction score

---

### Weekly Metrics (Review Every Monday)

**Customer Acquisition:**
- New customers acquired
- Customer acquisition cost by channel
- Email list growth
- Affiliate partner activity

**Product Performance:**
- Top 10 products by revenue
- Top 10 by units sold
- Stockout alerts for best-sellers
- Product return rate by SKU

**Marketing Efficiency:**
- ROAS (Return on Ad Spend) by channel
- Email metrics: open rate, click rate, conversion
- Ad creative performance (CTR, CPC)

---

### Monthly Metrics (Executive Review)

**Customer Lifetime Value:**
- Overall LTV
- LTV by acquisition channel
- LTV by customer segment (RFM)
- Returning customer percentage

**Channel Economics:**
- Revenue by channel
- Profit margin by channel (after CAC)
- Channel trends MoM

**Business Health:**
- Gross margin %
- Operating costs as % of revenue
- Cash flow
- Inventory turnover
- Days sales outstanding (DSO)

---

## 10. Vizualizace Návrhy

To communicate these insights to stakeholders, create the following dashboards and charts:

### Dashboard 1: Executive Overview (1 page)

**Top Section:**
- Revenue gauge: Q4 actual vs. target
- Key metrics cards: Total orders, AOV, new customers, returning %
- Traffic sources pie chart

**Middle Section:**
- Daily revenue line chart (Oct-Dec with trend line)
- Orders by day-of-week bar chart
- Top 5 products table

**Bottom Section:**
- Alerts box: Critical issues flagged (Facebook ads, mobile conversion, retention rate drop)

---

### Dashboard 2: Channel Performance Deep Dive

**Layout:**
- Stacked area chart: Revenue over time by channel
- Scatter plot: Conversion rate (x-axis) vs. AOV (y-axis), bubble size = order volume, color = channel
- Table: All channels with metrics (orders, revenue, AOV, conversion, CAC, ROAS, profit)

---

### Dashboard 3: Customer Segmentation

**Layout:**
- RFM matrix heatmap: Recency (x-axis) × Frequency (y-axis), color intensity = monetary value
- Segment revenue bars: Champions, Loyal, Potential Loyalists, etc.
- Cohort retention curve: % of customers who make 2nd, 3rd, 4th purchase over time

---

### Dashboard 4: Product Performance

**Layout:**
- Treemap: Category revenue (size = revenue, color = growth vs. last quarter)
- Line chart: Top 10 SKUs revenue trend over 90 days
- Inventory health table: SKU, current stock, days remaining, reorder status

---

### Dashboard 5: Marketing Efficiency

**Layout:**
- Waterfall chart: Revenue attribution by channel
- CAC vs. LTV scatter plot: Each channel plotted, quadrants labeled (sustainable/profitable, need optimization, etc.)
- Email funnel: Sent → Opened → Clicked → Purchased with conversion rates

---

## 11. Appendix: Data Sources & Methodology

**Data Collection:**
- E-commerce platform: Custom Laravel + Stripe (45,000 orders exported)
- Google Analytics: Traffic and behavior data
- Email platform: Mailchimp campaign performance
- Advertising platforms: Google Ads, Facebook Ads Manager
- Customer service: Zendesk ticket exports

**Analysis Tools:**
- Python (pandas, numpy, matplotlib) for statistical analysis
- SQL for database queries
- Excel for ad-hoc analysis and stakeholder reports
- Tableau for visualization

**Methodology:**
- RFM segmentation: Recency (30-day windows), Frequency (order count tiers), Monetary (spend tiers)
- Customer lifetime value: 90-day LTV calculated as sum of all orders per customer over period
- Statistical significance: Chi-square test for categorical comparisons, t-test for continuous metrics (p < 0.05 threshold)
- Forecasting: ARIMA time series model with seasonal adjustments, validated against 2024 Q1 data

**Limitations:**
- Some traffic source data missing (2.1% of orders)
- Customer satisfaction scores based on email surveys (26% response rate - may skew positive)
- LTV calculated over 90 days only (true LTV requires 12-24 month tracking)
- Competitor data not available (relied on market benchmarks)

---

## Summary for CEO

**The Good:**
Q4 2025 delivered 38.25M Kč revenue (€1.53M), 45K orders - strong peak season performance. Email marketing (7,833% ROI!) and organic search (960 Kč AOV, 4.8% conversion) are gold mines. Top 30% of customers drive 64% of revenue - loyal base is solid.

**The Bad:**
Facebook ads are bleeding money (90% ROI - losing 10% per customer). Mobile UX is killing 3.5M Kč in cart abandonments. Returning customer rate collapsed 28% (42% → 30%) due to holiday one-time shoppers.

**The Urgent:**
1. Cut Facebook spend 50%, reallocate to Google Shopping/Pinterest
2. Launch retention campaign Jan 15 to recover Q4 customers
3. Fix mobile checkout and implement cart abandonment emails

**The Opportunity:**
If we execute recommended actions, Q1 forecast improves from 26.6M Kč baseline to 31.8M Kč (+19%) with higher margins. Focus: retention over acquisition (5× cheaper), email optimization, SEO content, VIP program for top customers.

**Bottom Line:**
Peak season revealed cracks in our acquisition strategy (overpaying for low-quality traffic) but also showed our retention potential (loyal customers are extremely valuable). Pivot to retention + organic growth strategy in Q1 will set us up for sustainable profitability.

---

**Next Steps:**
Review this analysis with leadership team, approve priority actions 1-6, assign owners and deadlines by Jan 13.